In an era defined by fragmentation, rapid technological change, and shifting geopolitical dynamics, new strategies are needed to navigate the increasingly complex global environment. Against this backdrop, the Future of Trade – a multi-year initiative designed to chart a roadmap for these uncertain times – was launched by Economist Impact at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, on January 22.
Supported by UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD) as a strategic partner, the Future of Trade was unveiled at The Global Exchange, a half-day forum hosted at Davos and sponsored by the UK Department for Business and Trade. The event brought together business leaders, policymakers, and economists to explore how current developments are reshaping global commerce and investment.
During the forum, John Ferguson, global head of trade and geopolitics and lead of the new Future of Trade initiative at Economist Impact, outlined the three key forces reshaping global trade systems today: rapid technological acceleration through artificial intelligence (AI) and automation, escalating climate disruption, and intensifying geopolitical competition – together transforming how goods are designed and produced, destabilising supply chains and transport routes, and splitting trade through a sharp rise in protectionist measures.
“Global trade has moved from a focus on efficiency to a landscape defined by risk, rivalry and weaponisation,” said Mr Ferguson. “Our new Future of Trade initiative aims to provide leaders with evidence-based insights to move beyond reactive strategies and shape a system that delivers stability, growth, and opportunity for all.”
The Future of Trade is a response to an increasingly complex and volatile global trade environment, where trust in a multilateral, rules-based system is being tested by multipolarity. Through rigorous research and strategic convenings that bring together governments, businesses, academics and civil society, the initiative will generate independent, evidence-based insights designed to build consensus and identify practical pathways toward a more resilient, inclusive, and sustainable global trade framework. The partnership with UNCTAD will elevate global debate and engagement, delivering high-quality data, analysis, and insights to advance an open global economy.
Building on this mission, the Future of Trade research roadmap sets out to explore the critical flows shaping global commerce by focusing on three interlinked priorities:
1) Multilateral trade and local democracy
Interrogating how trust can be rebuilt in a new trade order shaped by geopolitics, climate change, and an AI-driven industrial transformation by solving key questions such as, “How do we restore the multilateral system in this new chapter of global trade?”, and “What are the new rules, processes and structures needed to renew cooperation and trust?”
2) Next generation trade
Examining how digital and environmental trade can be strengthened in an AI-driven global economy by addressing challenges such as, “How can digital trade benefit all economies rather than a minority in advanced markets?”, and “How do we strike the right balance between trade and environmental objectives to meet global climate goals?”
3) Resilient trade networks
Exploring how AI-driven supply chains and trade networks can withstand an era of persistent uncertainty and disruption by tackling questions such as, “How do we ensure trade and supply chains remain resilient in a world of permanent volatility?”
The next phase of the initiative will explore critical questions across these priorities, from “How can narrower partnerships rebuild trust in a rules-based system?” to “Which governance models ensure interoperability, data security, and cross-border trust?” Economist Impact will collaborate with partners and convene experts to answer these questions and shape the next chapter of globalisation in a way that is open, participatory, and rules-based.
“History shows that recovery is possible. Trade collapsed in the 1930s but was rebuilt over decades of institution-building and liberalisation. Today, the same resolve is required,” said Mr Ferguson. The initiative is expected to generate original insights and evidence in pursuit of building a new trading order that is “inclusive, resilient, and sustainable”.
The Future of Trade inception report establishes a roadmap for the initiative by analysing the current landscape and identifying priorities for a new global trade architecture. It will be released following its official launch at Economist Impact’s Asia Trade and Supply Chain Summit in Singapore on 19 May 2026.
